Developments in the Middle East

The European Parliament held debates on the Middle East on the 14 and the 27 September. These were my contributions.

I
Most of the attention attracted by the Arab Spring has focused on internal developments, as is right and proper. However, from the perspective of the Middle Eastern region as a whole, it is vital to recognise that the Arab Spring is also transforming the geostrategic environment. The balance of power between Israel and its neighbours has shifted.

Mubarak’s Egypt was committed to a policy of zero change and this included relations with Israel. But this is moving in a different direction as hitherto marginalised political forces in Egypt are emerging. Israel likewise had a stable neighbour under the repressive Assad regime in Syria, where the outcome of the pressure for change remains unclear. There is no guarantee that a putative end of the Assad regime will be of benefit to Israel. At the same time, Turkey has initiated a far-reaching improvement of its links with the Arab world and has inevitably downgraded its relations with Israel.

In an ideal world, this should provide an incentive for Israel to find a settlement with the Palestinians and to do so quickly. Time is running out and it is vital for Israel’s future security that it come to terms with the changes; if not, it will very likely be coerced into them, in much less favourable circumstances.

II
The Middle East is undergoing a palpable transformation - the Arab spring, the democracy movements, the decline of the autocrats - all testify to this and demand an urgent reassessment. Certain givens have changed and there are, therefore, new factors that determine action.

In this context, the bid for the full recognition of Palestinian statehood has become reality, whether the United Nations accepts this or not. Hence it is irrelevant that the United States has already signalled that it will veto the Palestinian application, because the idea of a Palestinian state has garnered substantial support around the world. Probably a majority of the members of the UN are in favour. So this acceptance of Palestinian statehood is almost certainly irreversible as a political fact.

Legally, of course, nothing has happened, but political realities and legal status are often at variance, as in this case. What is puzzling is Israel's stolid rejection of the Palestinian position, despite all the evidence that the much discussed two-state solution is the most likely outcome - true, a long term outcome - of the process.

The implication is that Israel will eventually be constrained to accept the Palestinian bid for statehood, so the sooner it does so, the better for all concerned. It is regrettable, then, that Israel and its supporters are basically disregarding a new political fact, the coming of Palestinian statehood.

Sch. Gy